And that was before the hearings started. Granted, support among Democrats for confirming Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court had almost nowhere to go but up, but today’s Morning Consult poll shows momentum building across the spectrum for her nomination. Josh Jordan captures the graphic that shows the progress made since Donald Trump first announced her nomination:
Morning Consult poll: Support to confirm Amy Coney Barrett continues to rise, going from +3 at the end of September to +17 today.
Support from idependents has moved from -3 to +7 over the last two weeks.
There is zero chance that ACB is not confirmed given these numbers. pic.twitter.com/E0PcQt50aE
— Josh Jordan (@NumbersMuncher) October 14, 2020
Ominously for the Senate Democrats attempting to block this, their own voters have moved toward positive the most on Barrett. That’s mostly among the “no opinion” block, but opposition among Democrats peaked at the announcement and has fallen off since, too. Barrett has also picked up ten points among independents, entirely from undecided voters, and is now +7 rather than -3, as Jordan notes.
That momentum among non-Republicans is significant in another way. Morning Consult looks at this data and compares it to Brett Kavanaugh’s polling at the same point in the process. It’s similar enough, they report, to conclude that Democrats’ feigned outrage over the supposed unconstitutionality of nominating and confirming a Supreme Court justice ahead of an election hasn’t impressed many voters:
The level of support for Barrett’s nomination, an increase of 11 points since President Donald Trump announced her nomination on Sept. 26, also compares favorably with public sentiment toward Justice Brett Kavanaugh prior to the first day of his confirmation hearings in September 2018. At that time, 37 percent of voters said the Senate should vote to confirm Kavanaugh to the court, compared with 29 percent who said it should vote to deny his nomination.
At this point in the process, a larger share of Republicans and Democrats are voicing support for Barrett’s nomination than they did for Kavanaugh’s: 77 percent of GOP voters and 27 percent of Democratic voters said Barrett should be confirmed, compared to 67 percent and 15 percent, respectively, who said the same of Kavanaugh ahead of his hearings.
Turning to more recent trends, the latest poll provides another warning sign for Senate Democrats — process arguments about when the chamber should hold a vote on Barrett’s nomination have yet to sway public opinion.
If it hasn’t swayed public opinion yet, it’s not going to work at all. They had to hope that Barrett would stumble in the hearings to undermine that momentum, but so far she’s been nothing short of brilliant. By the time she wraps up her hearing today, Senate Democrats will have nothing left but the process argument that’s already failing among their target voters. If they obstruct at this point, the process argument may even backfire on them, especially among the 31% of independents who are still undecided on this question.