Investor’s Business Daily published its final election poll today and the results show a tight race nationally with just four points separating President Trump and Joe Biden:
Today’s Trump vs. Biden poll update finds the Democratic challenger leading the Republican incumbent by 4 points, 50.2%-46.2%, in a four-way presidential poll of likely voters. Biden’s lead was 3.2 points on Monday…
IBD/TIPP’s latest Trump vs. Biden poll margin of +4 points for the Democrat again makes it an outlier. The RealClearPolitics average of 2020 presidential polls shows that Biden has a 6.7-point lead.
The RCP average has been updated with the addition of this IBD poll plus several others and now shows Biden with a 7.2 lead over Trump. So +4 is on the lower end of the range. IBD argues a Trump electoral college win is still possible at +4 because some of those additional votes for Biden are spread over places like Texas:
Trump’s 46.2% support in the final IBD/TIPP presidential poll puts him a hair above his 46.1% vote total in 2016. However, Biden’s 50.2% support builds upon Clinton’s 48.2% vote share.
Yet given Biden’s apparent improvement over Clinton’s performance in red states like Texas and Georgia, if state polls are accurate, he may need a wider popular vote advantage to assure a victory.
TIPP President Raghavan Mayur cautions that Trump could lose the popular vote by more than his 2.1-point deficit in 2016, perhaps even by today’s 4-point IBD/TIPP margin, and still have a chance to eke out a victory in the Electoral College.
IBD sees Trump doing much better with minority voters than four years ago, though because of small sample sizes they make a point of suggesting these numbers have “wide credibility intervals.”
Trump appears to be faring better among black and Hispanic voters than in 2016, though the small sample sizes come with wide credibility intervals. The apparent narrowing of the gap among these voters in recent days also bucks the trend established in the first couple of weeks of IBD/TIPP Trump vs. Biden polls.
Maybe IBD just doesn’t believe it’s own results. The final numbers show Trump winning 15.9% of black voters and 47.1% of Hispanic voters (actually beating Biden who has 46.4% of the Hispanic vote). For comparison purposes, the final IBD poll in 2016 had Trump with 8% of the black vote and 23% of the Hispanic vote. In short, Trump’s percentage of the minority vote has doubled according to this poll.
It’s worth nothing that the final 2016 IBD numbers did turn out to be pretty accurate, with Trump winning about 8% of the black vote and 29% of the Hispanic vote. That latter number was a surprise to many. So maybe IBD is once again on to something with the idea that Trump is doing well with minority voters. Or put another way, that Biden is doing less well with minority voters. It wouldn’t be the first poll to suggest that’s the case.
One recent prediction published in the Post suggests Trump would do about as well with Hispanic voters as he did in 2016. It really would be shocking to a lot of people if he cracked 40% with this segment of the electorate. It’s something to keep an eye on as the day progresses.