Joe Biden continues to lead in most national surveys, but today’s Rasmussen Reports finds President Trump with a one-point lead, 48-47. Rasmussen surveyed 1,500 likely voters. At this point, registered voter polls are pretty much worthless. The pollster that turns out to be “right” after Election Day will be the one with the best turnout model.
Of course, one factor that polls can’t take into account is voter fraud. In a state where the race is close, voter fraud could tip the balance. Pennsylvania comes to mind. It doesn’t happen often, but it happens. For example, there is no serious doubt that Norm Coleman beat Al Franken in Minnesota’s 2008 Senate election. Franken’s 312-vote margin was much less than any rational estimate of his advantage in fraudulent votes.
All that said, for now I’m going with my lying eyes.